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Monday 4th September 2006

by williamshepherd @ 2006-09-06 - 11:11:27

Bosses at the world's Oil Giants are dribbling into their martinis at the thought of acquiring the rights to explore in India for the first time. Companies have ten days to submit bids on fifty-five exploration blocs around the country in one of the largest oil and gas auctions ever staged. Why not ask your neighbourhood Hedge Fund to take a punt? All they need is eight million pounds and they will be sent an Information Pack and encouraged to join the bidding.

The Indian Government is hoping that Western Companies will fork out upwards of four thousand million pounds to speculate in the twelve thousand square miles on offer. This marks the first time that ExxonMobil, British Petroleum...Broken Pipelines in Alaska...and ChevronTexaco have had a bite at Indian Reserves.

Shell has been there before but sold its Indian assets to the British company Cairns Energy two years ago complaining about Indian Bureaucracy...code for not getting normal giveaway terms and conditions. Both Shell and Cairns are bidding.

But this is still small beer compared to some of the deals being put together in Europe. The German Engineering Group Linde A/G for instance has merged with the British industrial gases giant British Oxygen Group...rebranded many years ago as BOC...to form The Linde Group.

But all this is dwarfed by the latest Russian Geopolitical Realignment in Central Asia. Gazprom...Europe's biggest gas supplier...has struck a deal with Turkmenistan...there has been a series of abortive negotiations and several sideshows in Ukraine, Kakakhstan and Uzbekistan. But Russian President Putin has clout nowadays.

Gazprom supplies a quarter of Europe's needs but the Russian Energy Giant doesn't have enough gas both to fulfil export contracts and keep the home fires burning. Instead of drilling more wells in Russia, Gazprom buys fuel from the Central Asian Republics profiting from their isolation to purchase gas cheaply...until now.

Negotiations with Turkmenistan kept stalling because the Russians refused to concede a 50% price hike. But the Turkmens finally got themselves a deal that has Gazprom paying $100 per 1000 cubic metres...up from the $65 they were getting before. The contractual delivery promises are for 500 000 million cubic feet per year equivalent to half of the UK's annual consumption.

Nearly all this gas is destined for Ukraine which is also a conduit for 80 percent of Gazprom's exports to Europe...and the weakest link in the continent's energy supply network. The Ukrainian Economy burns 75 percent of UK consumption and can hold the Russians...and Europe...to ransom if it doesn't get the gas it asks for at the price it wants.

Last winter Gazprom tried to strong-arm Ukrainian President Yuschenko nto a threefold price increase by shutting the taps on New Year's Day. Ukraine responded by diverting fuel from Gazprom's export lines. The political row resulted in alarming pressure drops along gas pipelines to Austria, Hungary and Italy...and price surges in the London Spot Market.

If Gazprom is paying 50% more for Turkmen gas it is a fair bet that Ukraine faces another sharp price increase or demands that it surrender control of the transit pipes that funnel Russian gas to Europe...although Gazprom is less interested in squeezing more dollars out of Ukraine than in consolidating its control over its export routes.

Meanwhile Europe can only watch while this gas opera plays out and mutter protests about its Energy Charter Treaty...still not ratified by Moscow...and the need for gas market liberalisation...a concept many millions of cubic feet from Russia's own agenda.

But this is Central Asia...at the centre of our One World Island...so Europe is far from being the only player in the casino. Turkmenistan recently signed an agreement to supply 300 000 million cubic feet of gas per year to China...by pipeline. Just four problems. The pipeline goes through Afghanistan, Pakistan and India...and it hasn't been built yet.

Meanwhile Europe is angling for a subsea pipeline across the Caspian Sea to link up with a BP gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey. What a pity nobody really knows how much gas remains under the Turkmen steppes. Five copies were made of a report on the most recent survey of Turkmen gas reserves and not one has been allowed out of the President's Office. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.

In the middle of England the Gas Opera has reached the wilds of Lincolnshire with the construction of an enormous Gas Storage Facility. My elder brother is at the sharp end…drafted in to sort out the mess for his German paymasters. ‘Where’s it at?’ I asked. ‘Planning Application is in.’ ‘Application? There must be one for every few hundred yard of pipeline!’

He smiled wryly. ‘Well yes…but the Germans thought they could just tick a few boxes and that was it. My job is mostly political…explaining to the Germans what is involved in getting Planning Permission in the UK and explaining to the English Planners how the Germans look at things. We are making steady progress. The Germans are becoming adept at adjusting project schedules to political reality.’ Hmm!

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