Margaret Kennedy took a deep breath…and adopted her podium stance. ‘We have decades of environmental management experience. Yellowstone Park was the first wilderness to be set aside as a natural preserve anywhere in the world. Americans know how to do these things.

‘I agree,’ Shepherd said. The American experience with Yellowstone Park is very instructive. Professor Calderón. Take us through the background.’

‘Well the region around the Yellowstone River in Wyoming has long been recognized for its wondrous scenic beauty. Lewis and Clark sang its praises. Artists like Bierstadt and Moran painted it. And the new Northern Pacific Railroad wanted a scenic attraction to draw tourists west.

So in 1872 in part because of railroad pressure President Ulysses Grant set aside two million acres. The problem…unacknowledged then and later…was that no one had any experience trying to preserve wilderness. There had never been any need before. And it was assumed to be much easier than it proved to be.’

‘When Theodore Roosevelt visited the park in 1903 he saw a landscape teeming with game. There were thousands of elk, buffalo, black bear, deer, mountain lions, grizzlies, coyotes, wolves and bighorn sheep.

Yet within a few years the teeming landscape was gone forever. The park managers…charged with keeping the park in pristine condition…took a series of steps that they thought would preserve the park and its animals. But they were wrong.’

‘The early park managers mistakenly believed that elk were about to become extinct. So they shot and poisoned all the wolves and prohibited Indians from hunting in the park…though Yellowstone was a traditional hunting ground.

Once protected the elk herds exploded and ate so much of certain trees and grasses that the ecology of the area began to change. The elk ate the trees the beavers used to make dams so the beavers vanished. Beavers were vital to the overall water management of the region. When the beavers disappeared meadows dried up, trout and otter vanished, soil erosion increased and the park ecology changed even further.’

‘By the 1920s it had become abundantly clear there were too may elk so the rangers began to shoot them by the thousands. But the change in plant ecology seemed to be permanent. The old mix of trees and grasses did not return.’

Kennedy broke in. ‘That’s fine as far as it goes. But our knowledge has increased since then. These were early teething problems.’ Bill Shepherd raised his eyebrows. ‘I wish this were true. But you know this is a perpetual claim…that we know more today. But it’s not borne out by the facts.’ He nodded to Constanza to continue.

‘It became increasingly clear that the Indian Hunters of old had exerted a valuable ecological influence on the park lands by keeping down the numbers of elk, moose and bison. This belated recognition came as part of a more general understanding that Native Americans had strongly shaped the ‘untouched wilderness’ that the first white men saw…or thought they were seeing…when they first arrived in the New World.

The untouched wilderness was nothing of the sort. Human beings had exerted a huge influence on the environment for thousands of years…burning plains grasses, modifying forests, thinning specific animal populations and hunting others to extinction.’

‘Forbidding Indians from hunting was seen as a mistake. But it was just one of many mistakes by park managers. Grizzlies were protected, then killed off. Wolves were killed off then brought back. Animal research involving field study and radio collars were halted then resumed after certain species were declared endangered.

A policy of fire prevention was instituted with no understanding of the regenerative effects of fire. When the policy was finally reversed thousands of acres burned so hotly that the ground was sterilized and the forests did not grow back without reseeding. Rainbow trout were introduced in the 1970s soon killing off the native cut-throat species.’

‘So what you have,’ Shepherd said, ‘is a history of ignorant, incompetent and disastrously intrusive intervention followed by attempts to repair the damage caused by the repairs as dramatic as any oil spill or toxic dump. Except in this case there is no evil corporation or fossil fuel economy to blame. This disaster was caused by environmentalists making one dreadful mistake after another while proving how little they understood the environment they intended to protect.’

Margaret Kennedy turned to Calderón. ‘This is absurd. You know that perfectly well. To preserve a wilderness you just preserve it. You leave it alone and let the balance of nature takeover. That’s all that is required.’

‘Absolutely wrong,’ Shepherd said. ‘Passive protection…leaving things alone…doesn’t preserve the status quo in a wilderness any more than it does in your backyard. The world is alive. Things are constantly in flux. Species are winning, losing, rising, falling, taking over, being pushed back. Setting aside wilderness doesn’t freeze it in its present state any more than locking your children in a room prevents them growing up.

We live in a changing world and if you want to preserve a piece of land in a particular state you have to decide what that state is and then actively…even aggressively…manage it.’

‘But you said we don’t know how to.’ ‘Correct. We don’t. Any action changes the environment. Any change hurts some plant or animal. Preserving old-growth forest to help the Spotted Owl means Kirtland’s Warbler is deprived of the new-growth forest they prefer. There is no free lunch.’

…extracted from a Tavern Talk on Climate with Bill Shepherd

Constanza Calderón felt the dark cool forest floor beneath her toes. Sunlight dappled the forest floor but even so the TV cameras had to turn on their lights to film the third-grade schoolchildren sitting in concentric circles around the famous television presenter and activist Thomas Naylor.

Naylor was wearing a black T-shirt that set off his makeup and his dark good looks. ‘These glorious trees are the oldest living things on the planet. They are the Guardians of the Earth. They are wise. And they have a message for us. Leave the planet alone. We must listen to them.’

‘The threat of abrupt climate change,’ Naylor said, ‘is so devastating for mankind and for all life on this planet that conferences are being convened around the world to deal with it. There is one in Los Angeles starting tomorrow where scientists will discuss what we can do to mitigate this terrible threat.

But if we do nothing catastrophe looms. And these mighty magnificent trees will be a memory, a postcard from the past, a snapshot of man’s inhumanity to the natural world. We’re responsible for catastrophic climate change. And only we can stop it.’ He finished with a slight turn to favour his good side and a piercing stare from his blue eyes right into the camera lens.

Half an hour later the plane lifted off the runway and rose over the forest. After his talk he had taken a few minutes to sign autographs for the kids. The cameras filmed that as well. He turned to Constanza giving her his best smile. ‘I thought it went extremely well, didn’t you?’ ‘Reasonably well, considering it was all bullshit.’ Calderón said.

Naylor’s smile remained fixed but his eyes narrowed. ‘I’m not sure what you’re referring to,’ he said. ‘I’m referring to the whole speech. Sequoias are sentinels and guardians of the planet? They have a message for us?’ ‘Well they do…’ ‘They’re trees. Big trees. They have as much of a message as an eggplant.’ ‘I think you are missing… ‘And they’ve managed to survive forest fires? Hardly…they’re dependent on fires. That’s how they reproduce. Redwoods have tough seeds that only burst open in the heat of a fire. Fires are essential for the health of the Redwood Forest.’

‘I think,’ Naylor said rather stiffly, ‘that you may have missed my point.’ ‘Really? What did I miss?’ ‘I was trying to convey…perhaps a bit lyrically…’ ‘Timeless? Primeval? Do you know anything about these forests?’ ‘Yes I think I do.’ His voice was tight. He was visibly angry now.

‘Look out of the window. How long do you think your primeval forest has looked the way it does now?’ ‘Obviously for hundreds of thousands of years…’ ‘Not true. Human beings were here for many thousands of years before these forests ever appeared. Did you know that?’ He clenched his jaw.

‘20 000 years ago the Ice Age glaciers receded from California gouging out Yosemite Valley as they left. As the ice walls withdrew they left behind a damp plain with lots of lakes fed by the melting glaciers but no vegetation at all. It was basically wet sand.

After a few thousand years the land dried as the glaciers continued to move further north. This region of California became arctic tundra with tall grasses supporting little animals like mice and squirrels. Human beings arrived here hunting the small animals and setting fires. ‘Okay so far?’ Calderón said. ‘I’m listening,’ Tom growled trying to control his temper.

She continued. ‘At first arctic grasses and shrubs were the only plants that could take hold. When they died they decomposed and over thousands of years a layer of topsoil built up. And that initiated a sequence of plant colonization that was basically the same everywhere in post-glacial North America.’

First Lodgepole Pine comes in…around 14 000 years ago…joined later by hardy trees like Spruce, Hemlock and Alder…the real primary forest and they dominated this landscape for the next 4 000 years. Then the climate changed. It got much warmer and all the glaciers in California melted.

There were no glaciers in California back then. It was warm and dry, there were lots of fires and the primary forest burned. It was replaced by a plains-type vegetation of Oak Trees and Prairie Herbs and a few Douglas Firs…but not many because the climate was too dry for fir trees.’

‘Then around 6 000 years ago the climate changed again. It became wetter and the Douglas Fir, Hemlock and Cedar moved in and took over the land creating the great closed-canopy forests that you see now. But someone might refer to these fir trees as a pest plant…an oversized weed…that invaded the landscape crowding out the native plants that had been there before them…because these big canopy forests made the ground too dark for other trees to survive. And since there were frequent fires the closed-canopy forests were able to spread like mad.

So they’re not timeless. They’re merely the last in line.’ Naylor snorted. ‘They’re still 6 000 years old for God’s sake.’ But Calderón was relentless. ‘Not true,’ she said. ‘Scientists have shown that the forests continuously changed their composition. Each thousand-year period was different from the one before it. The forests changed constantly.

And then there were the Indians. The Indians were expert observers of the natural world. Those forests may look impressive but they’re dead landscapes for game. So the Indians set fires making sure the forests burned down periodically. They made sure there were only islands of old-growth forest in the midst of plains and meadows. The forests the first Europeans saw were not primeval but cultivated. It’s not surprising that 150 years ago there was less old-growth forest than today. The Indians were realists. Today it’s all romantic mythology.’

…extracted from a Tavern Talk on Climate with Bill Shepherd

Fun and games in Sweden with just a week to polling day. The Liberal Party which is part of the opposition coalition trying to wrest power from the Social Democrats and their fellow travellers on the left…the Socialists and the Green Party…has been caught hacking into the Governing Party’s campaign computers seventy eight times. Oops!

A few hundred miles to the south Belgian police have foiled a neo-Nazi terrorist plot. Lieve Pellens a spokeswoman for the Federal Prosecutor talks of a splinter group to Vlaams Belang…the Flanders Freedom Fighters…with the splendid name of Bloed Boden Eer & Trouw…Blood, Soil, Honour and Loyalty, infiltrating the Belgian army and stashing away weapons for its ‘anti-Semitic and xenophobic’ agenda.

Meanwhile on the other side of the pond Bush’s speech writers have come up with Islamic Fascism as their latest weapon in their War of Words with the Democrats.

But the best political show of the week is in my own backyard. With British troops dying in Iraq and Afghanistan on a Fool’s Errand and terrorists plotting mayhem on the Home Front the UK Governing Party has been indulging in a demented outbreak of internecine warfare.

In the dog days of summer just 16 months after a General Election and with Parliament in recess until October the Labour Party has decided that the time is right for palace revolution. To hell with the governance of Britain all they are worried about is the date of the Prime Minister’s departure.

Blair will have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of Downing Street to prevent him notching up his decade as Prime Minister. He was always going to be gone before next autumn. So the effect of this week’s shenanigans is to put the British Government on hold. Not so much a lame duck as a dead one. Why? Whose purpose is being served?

This clumsy all-consuming coup d’état has been taking place within the padded cell of the Westminster Asylum without any reference to their paying public. Various species of political pond life have paraded across the nation’s screens and the radio airwaves posing as statesmen and passing sentence in the most sanctimonious and self-serving terms. This Political Soap Opera has three principal players: Tony Blair, Gordon Brown…and David Cameron.

Modern Prime Ministers have no real interests outside politics. In the 19th century Lord Derby translated the Iliad, Benjamin Disraeli wrote novels, Gladstone buried himself in Horace and Lord Salisbury busied himself in his chemistry laboratory at Hatfield House. Modern Career Politicians have only their property portfolios to fall back on.

After a lifetime clambering up the greasy pole a modern Cabinet Minister is cast into existential darkness when they depart office. One moment you are the supreme dispenser of patronage, surrounded by courtiers and supplicants anxious to touch the hem of your garment. Your authority is enormous. You say to a man go and he goeth, come and he cometh. But out of office you become essentially an object of curiosity.

You can join the lecture circuit and play to American Matrons in Florida, Japanese Bankers in Tokyo and Russian Oligarchs in Moscow and be paid handsomely for it. But reminiscing about the time when you mattered can give little inner satisfaction.

The trouble with Gordon Brown is that every time it has come to the crunch he has bottled out. He has always commanded enough support in the Labour Party in Parliament and in the Cabinet to block any Blair measure. He could have raised his standard against the Iraq War. He didn’t. He could have vetoed any number of contentious issues. He hasn’t. Instead he has let Blair plough ahead in the fervent hope that it would all go pear-shaped and hasten his demise.

A nod of Brown's head could have brought this week’s self-destruction by the party to a halt. We are told that nothing happens domestically without it passing across the Chancellor’s desk. Yet whenever there is trouble Gordon Brown goes AWOL. Then there are the reputed psychological flaws. Do leopards really change their spots?

Meanwhile waiting in the wings are Messrs Straw,Prescott, Milburn, Johnson, Hain & Clarke and the monstrous regiment of Labour Party Women . While behind the scenes are Blair's Babes and the formidable Cherie Blair. Is she going to let her husband slip away humiliated and despised?

Besides Blair is no coward. He is a street fighter…when he has to be. And he remains an enormous asset to the Labour Party because he wins elections. Immature Labour MPs forget that Governments are usually behind in the polls. Only one election matters…the General Election.

Which brings us to Cameron and his Old Etonian Shadow Cabinet. Charles Kennedy, the leader of the Liberal Democrats…like Winston Churchill…has been an alcoholic all his political life. His minders kept an eye on him and hid him out of sight when necessary. But most the time he did a good job.

But suddenly when Cameron is launched into the leadership of the Conservative Party behind a campaign reminiscent of Tony Blair’s royal procession two decades earlier, a ferocious attack is launched on Kennedy and off he goes. Barely had the dust settled before the dogs were unleashed on Tony Blair with the media relentlessly pursuing its prey. The chief beneficiary...David Cameron.

Tony Blair might sack Gordon Brown when he returns from Israel after aligning Government Middle East Policy with the Labour Party instead of the Neocons. But I wouldn’t advise anyone betting on either. More significantly 44 million English are tired of being lectured at by 4 million Scotch Gits. A Scotch-led Labour Party is now unelectable.

Constanza Calderón noticed that Margaret Kennedy’s group was breaking up. Kennedy was the wife of a prominent Hollywood lawyer and a major contributor to the National Environmental Research Foundation. Kennedy was always emphatic and talked non-stop. Calderón had known her for several years. They had worked together at the end of the 1990s before Calderón began to have her doubts about Global Warming.

‘Constanza. I’ll tell you what I heard. There is a campaign to discredit NGOs. I have a leaked document. Industry is afraid of the growing power of the Environmental Movement and is desperate…desperate…to stop it. Our success is driving them crazy.’

Bill Shepherd joined Constanza who introduced him to Kennedy. ‘I know who you are,’ she said with barely concealed hostility. ‘I thought you might,’ Shepherd said smiling. ‘And,’ she continued, ‘it’s guys like you…smart and unscrupulous and immoral…who have made our environment the polluted mess it is now. I don’t like you Mr. Shepherd. I don’t like you personally. I don’t like what you do in the world. And I don’t like anything you stand for.’

Margaret Kennedy turned to Constanza. ‘Just so you know. Mr. Shepherd doesn’t believe in anything that normal people believe in…not even Global Warming or Kyoto. He’s an industry hit-man…representing coal and oil interests. Shepherd said nothing. He just handed her his card. ‘Institute for Risk Analysis,’ Kennedy read aloud. ‘That’s a new one. I’ll add it to the list of phoney right-wing fronts.’

Shepherd said nothing. ‘Because it’s all disinformation,’ Kennedy said. ‘The studies, the press releases, the flyers, the websites, the organized campaigns, the big-money smears. Industry was thrilled when the US didn’t sign Kyoto.’ Shepherd rubbed his chin and said nothing.

Kennedy said, ‘The US is the world’s biggest polluter and our government doesn’t give a damn.’ Shepherd smiled blandly. ‘The United States is an international pariah isolated from the rest of the world and despised because we refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol and attack a global problem.’

She continued to goad him. Finally it seemed he had had enough. ‘Tell me about Kyoto,’ he said. ‘Why should the US have signed it?’ ‘Why? Because we have a moral obligation to join the rest of the civilized world in reducing Carbon Emissions to below 1990 levels.’

‘What effect would the Kyoto Treaty have?’ Shepherd asked. ‘The whole world knows that. It would reduce global temperatures in the year 2100.’ ‘By how much?’ ‘I don’t know what you’re driving at?’ ‘Don’t you? Kyoto would reduce warming by .04 degrees celsius in the year 2100. Four hundredths of a degree. Do you dispute that outcome?’ ‘I certainly do. Four what? Hundredths of a degree? That’s ridiculous.’ So you don’t believe that would be the effect?’ ‘Well maybe because the US didn’t sign…’ ‘No, the effect if the US did sign. Four hundredths of a degree.’

‘No,’ Kennedy said shaking her head. ‘I don’t believe that’s true.’ Shepherd interrupted her. ‘The figure has been published a number of times in scientific journals. The most recent is the October 2003 issue of Nature…Number 22…with Russia signed on the Kyoto effect would be minus .02 degrees celsius by 2050. IPCC models estimate more…but none exceed 0.15 celsius.’

Naylor raised his glass as he came to join them. ‘This guy’s real big on references.’ ‘As opposed to rhetoric,’ Shepherd said nodding. ‘Yes I am.’ Naylor belched. ‘Four hundredths of a degree? In a hundred years? What a bunch of bullshit.’ ‘One could say so.’ ‘I just did,’ Naylor said.

‘But Kyoto’s a first step,’ Kennedy said. ‘That’s the point. Because if you believe in the Precautionary Principle as I do…’ ‘I didn’t think the purpose of Kyoto was to take a first step,’ Shepherd said. ‘I thought the purpose was to reduce Global Warming.’ ‘Well it is.’ ‘Then why make a treaty that won’t accomplish that? That won’t in effect do anything at all?’ ‘It’s a first step.’ ‘Tell me. Do you think it’s possible to reduce Carbon Dioxide?’ ‘Of course. There are a host of alternative energy sources just waiting to be adopted. Wind power, solar, waste, geothermal…’

‘Ted Wigley and Martin Hoffert in an article Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet in Science 298 November 1st 2002 pages 981-987 write that energy sources that can produce 100% to 300% of present world power consumption without Greenhouse Emissions do not exist.'

'No country in the world produces 35% renewable energy.’ ‘But countries like Japan do much better than we do.’ ‘Constanza?’ ‘Japan is five percent renewable. Germany is five percent. England two percent.’ ‘Denmark?’ ‘Eight percent.’ ‘Well,’ she said, ‘it just means we have more work to do.’ ‘No question about that. Wind farms chop birds to pieces so they might not be so popular. But solar panels would work…silent…efficient.’

‘Solar is great,’ Kennedy said. ‘Yes,’ Shepherd said. ‘And all we need is about 10 000 square miles of panels to do the job. Just cover the state of Massachusetts with solar panels and we’d be done. Of course by 2050 our energy needs will triple so maybe New York would be a better choice.’ ‘Or Texas. Nobody I know cares about Texas.’ ‘Well there you are.’ ‘Cover 10% of Texas and you’re in business. Although,’ he added, ‘Texans would probably prefer to cover Los Angeles first.’ ‘You’re making a joke.’ ‘Not at all. Let’s settle on Nevada. It’s all desert anyway.’

…extracted from a Tavern Talk on Climate with Bill Shepherd

It was very warm in the room and Constanza Calderón was having difficulty concentrating. She remembered that she had started looking into the whole question of glacier movements several months ago after Bill Shepherd had drawn her attention to an article in 2002 by Roger J. Braithwaite in Progress in Physical Geography 26, Number 1 entitled Glacier Mass Balance, the first 50 years of international monitoring. The article had concluded that there was ‘no obvious common global trend of increasing glacier melt in recent years.’

Shepherd was addressing the whole group. ‘Does anyone know how many glaciers we are talking about?’ Someone said two dozen. Someone else suggested two hundred. ‘Tom? You’re a Californian. How many in your state?’ A satisfied smile spread across Thomas Naylor’s face. His bruised ego was about to get a boost. He felt grateful to Bill Shepherd for asking.

'According to Raub in 1980 there are 497 glaciers. A recent book Glaciers of California by Guyton counted 108 glaciers and 401 glacierets.’ He could see Shepherd was impressed. ‘Thank you Tom.’ Shepherd said with a warm smile. ‘Yes. There are a lot of glaciers in the world…one hundred and sixty thousand at the last count. About sixty-seven thousand have been inventoried but only a few have been studied with any care.'

‘There is Mass Balance Data extending five years or more for only seventy-nine glaciers in the entire world. So how can anyone say they are all melting? Nobody knows if they are or not. Which is why so much is made of particular glaciers…like Kilimanjaro.’ ‘Absolutely,’ said Naylor. ‘Kilimanjaro is definitely melting. Everybody knows that.’ ‘Why is that?’ Shepherd asked. Several people in the group said ‘Global Warming.’

'Actually probably not,’ Shepherd said. ‘Kilimanjaro has been rapidly melting since the 1800s…long before Global Warming. The loss of the glacier has been a topic of scholarly concern for over a hundred years. And it has always been something of a mystery because Kilimanjaro is an equatorial volcano so it exists in a warm region. Satellite measurements of that region show no warming trend at the altitude of the Kilimanjaro glacier. So why is it melting?’

A tall bearded gentleman at the back of the group responded. ‘It’s beginning to look like deforestation is the culprit. I have just come back from Nairobi and was talking to a couple of Swedish scientists at the Norfolk Hotel. They are working out what to do about it. The rain forest at the base of the mountain has been cut down so the air blowing upward is no longer moist. Annika reckoned that if the forest is replanted the glacier will grow again. Göran agreed.’

‘Right,’ said Shepherd. ‘And this is something of a trend. Local Weather and not Global Warming is the principal influence on glacier behaviour.’ An earnest-looking young woman asked for references about Kilimanjaro. ‘Yes. Correct me if I’m wrong.’ He looked across at the bearded gentleman. ‘Betsy Mason’s article in the November 2003 issue of Nature...African Ice Under Wraps. The debate continues in the International Journal of Climatology…’ He looked across at Constanza. ‘Here is my glacier expert.’

‘Yes that’s right,’ Calderón said. ‘2004, Number 24 pages 329 to 339…an article entitled Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: observations and facts authored by Kaser and others.’ The young woman scribbled furiously into her notebook. ‘This article shifted the whole debate because Kilimanjaro and its vanishing glaciers have become an icon for Global Warming. This is part of the problem.’ ‘What do you mean?’ the young woman asked. ‘Aah,’ Calderón thought…a journalist.’

‘Politicians lag behind the Environmentalists who lag behind the Scientists who lag behind the latest Scientific Findings. Kaser’s work established that there was a drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century. The ensuing drier climate conditions could be forcing glacier retreat.’

…extracted from a Tavern Talk on Climate with Bill Shepherd.