Constanza Calderón noticed that Margaret Kennedy’s group was breaking up. Kennedy was the wife of a prominent Hollywood lawyer and a major contributor to the National Environmental Research Foundation. Kennedy was always emphatic and talked non-stop. Calderón had known her for several years. They had worked together at the end of the 1990s before Calderón began to have her doubts about Global Warming.

‘Constanza. I’ll tell you what I heard. There is a campaign to discredit NGOs. I have a leaked document. Industry is afraid of the growing power of the Environmental Movement and is desperate…desperate…to stop it. Our success is driving them crazy.’

Bill Shepherd joined Constanza who introduced him to Kennedy. ‘I know who you are,’ she said with barely concealed hostility. ‘I thought you might,’ Shepherd said smiling. ‘And,’ she continued, ‘it’s guys like you…smart and unscrupulous and immoral…who have made our environment the polluted mess it is now. I don’t like you Mr. Shepherd. I don’t like you personally. I don’t like what you do in the world. And I don’t like anything you stand for.’

Margaret Kennedy turned to Constanza. ‘Just so you know. Mr. Shepherd doesn’t believe in anything that normal people believe in…not even Global Warming or Kyoto. He’s an industry hit-man…representing coal and oil interests. Shepherd said nothing. He just handed her his card. ‘Institute for Risk Analysis,’ Kennedy read aloud. ‘That’s a new one. I’ll add it to the list of phoney right-wing fronts.’

Shepherd said nothing. ‘Because it’s all disinformation,’ Kennedy said. ‘The studies, the press releases, the flyers, the websites, the organized campaigns, the big-money smears. Industry was thrilled when the US didn’t sign Kyoto.’ Shepherd rubbed his chin and said nothing.

Kennedy said, ‘The US is the world’s biggest polluter and our government doesn’t give a damn.’ Shepherd smiled blandly. ‘The United States is an international pariah isolated from the rest of the world and despised because we refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol and attack a global problem.’

She continued to goad him. Finally it seemed he had had enough. ‘Tell me about Kyoto,’ he said. ‘Why should the US have signed it?’ ‘Why? Because we have a moral obligation to join the rest of the civilized world in reducing Carbon Emissions to below 1990 levels.’

‘What effect would the Kyoto Treaty have?’ Shepherd asked. ‘The whole world knows that. It would reduce global temperatures in the year 2100.’ ‘By how much?’ ‘I don’t know what you’re driving at?’ ‘Don’t you? Kyoto would reduce warming by .04 degrees celsius in the year 2100. Four hundredths of a degree. Do you dispute that outcome?’ ‘I certainly do. Four what? Hundredths of a degree? That’s ridiculous.’ So you don’t believe that would be the effect?’ ‘Well maybe because the US didn’t sign…’ ‘No, the effect if the US did sign. Four hundredths of a degree.’

‘No,’ Kennedy said shaking her head. ‘I don’t believe that’s true.’ Shepherd interrupted her. ‘The figure has been published a number of times in scientific journals. The most recent is the October 2003 issue of Nature…Number 22…with Russia signed on the Kyoto effect would be minus .02 degrees celsius by 2050. IPCC models estimate more…but none exceed 0.15 celsius.’

Naylor raised his glass as he came to join them. ‘This guy’s real big on references.’ ‘As opposed to rhetoric,’ Shepherd said nodding. ‘Yes I am.’ Naylor belched. ‘Four hundredths of a degree? In a hundred years? What a bunch of bullshit.’ ‘One could say so.’ ‘I just did,’ Naylor said.

‘But Kyoto’s a first step,’ Kennedy said. ‘That’s the point. Because if you believe in the Precautionary Principle as I do…’ ‘I didn’t think the purpose of Kyoto was to take a first step,’ Shepherd said. ‘I thought the purpose was to reduce Global Warming.’ ‘Well it is.’ ‘Then why make a treaty that won’t accomplish that? That won’t in effect do anything at all?’ ‘It’s a first step.’ ‘Tell me. Do you think it’s possible to reduce Carbon Dioxide?’ ‘Of course. There are a host of alternative energy sources just waiting to be adopted. Wind power, solar, waste, geothermal…’

‘Ted Wigley and Martin Hoffert in an article Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet in Science 298 November 1st 2002 pages 981-987 write that energy sources that can produce 100% to 300% of present world power consumption without Greenhouse Emissions do not exist.'

'No country in the world produces 35% renewable energy.’ ‘But countries like Japan do much better than we do.’ ‘Constanza?’ ‘Japan is five percent renewable. Germany is five percent. England two percent.’ ‘Denmark?’ ‘Eight percent.’ ‘Well,’ she said, ‘it just means we have more work to do.’ ‘No question about that. Wind farms chop birds to pieces so they might not be so popular. But solar panels would work…silent…efficient.’

‘Solar is great,’ Kennedy said. ‘Yes,’ Shepherd said. ‘And all we need is about 10 000 square miles of panels to do the job. Just cover the state of Massachusetts with solar panels and we’d be done. Of course by 2050 our energy needs will triple so maybe New York would be a better choice.’ ‘Or Texas. Nobody I know cares about Texas.’ ‘Well there you are.’ ‘Cover 10% of Texas and you’re in business. Although,’ he added, ‘Texans would probably prefer to cover Los Angeles first.’ ‘You’re making a joke.’ ‘Not at all. Let’s settle on Nevada. It’s all desert anyway.’

…extracted from a Tavern Talk on Climate with Bill Shepherd