Numerous studies show there is no increase in extreme weather, hurricanes, tornadoes and cyclones. Page 11 of the United Nations’ 1995 IPCC report that set the scene for the Kyoto Protocol claimed that overall there is no evidence that extreme weather events or climate variability has increased in a global sense in the 20th century. Six years later the IPCC was still reporting no long-term trend for tropical and extratropical storms and no systematic changes in tornadoes frequency, thunder days or hail. Björn Lomborg discusses it in The Skeptical Environmentalist.

Thomas Naylor was now somewhat the worse for wear. ‘What about Anecdotal Evidence? Lots of people think there will be more extreme weather with more hurricanes, tornadoes and cyclones in the future.’ ‘Yes indeed lots of people think so. But scientific studies do not bear them out. That’s why we do science…to see if our opinions can be verified in the real world or whether we are just having fantasies.’ ‘All these hurricanes are not fantasies.’ Shepherd sighed. ‘Here is the actual data,’ Shepherd said. ‘By decade between 1900 and 2000: 16, 19, 15, 17, 23, 18, 15, 12, 16, 14. US hurricane strikes over the last 100 years are not increasing. The data simply do not agree with you.’

Now El Niňo.’ ‘Yes…’ ‘As you know El Niňo is a global weather pattern that begins when ocean temperatures along the west coast of South America remain above normal for several months. Once it’s triggered, El Niňo lasts about a year and a half affecting weather around the world. El Niňo occurs roughly every four years…twenty three times in the last century. And it has been occurring for thousands of years. So it long precedes any claim of Global Warming.’

‘But what threat does El Niňo represent to the US? There was a major El Niňo in 1998.’ ‘Floods, crops ruined, things like that,’ Naylor replied. ‘Sure but the net economic effect of the last El Niňo was a gain of fifteen million dollars because of a longer growing season and less use of winter heating oil. That’s after deducting $1.5 billion for flooding and excess rain in California. Still a net benefit.’ ‘I’d like to see that study,’ Naylor said. ‘Constanza?’

‘Stanley A. Changnon 1999. Impacts of 1997-98 El Niňo-Generated Weather in the United States in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 80 Number 9 pages 1819-1828. To quote: the net economic benefit was surprisingly positive. Direct losses nationally were $4 billion and benefits $19 billion.’ ‘I’ll make sure you get a copy of the report because it suggests that if Global Warming occurs it will benefit most nations of the world.’

‘So what exactly is your point?’ Naylor asked. ‘You’re saying that we don’t need to pay any attention to the environment, that we can just leave it alone and let industry pollute and everything will be hunky-dory?’ For a moment Constanza thought that Bill would get angry. But he stayed calm and said, ‘If you oppose the death penalty, does it also mean you are in favour of doing nothing at all about crime?’ ‘No,’ Naylor said. ‘You can oppose the death penalty but still favour penalising criminals.’ ‘Yes of course.’ ‘Then I can say that Global Warming is not a threat but still favour environmental controls, can’t I?’ ‘But it doesn’t sound like you are saying that.’

Shepherd sighed. ‘Let’s remember where we live…on the third planet out from a medium-size sun. Our planet is five billion years old and it has been changing constantly all during that time. The Earth is now on its third atmosphere. The first atmosphere was helium and hydrogen. It dissipated early on because the planet was so hot. Then as the planet cooled volcanic eruptions produced a second atmosphere of steam and carbon dioxide.

Later the water vapour condensed forming the oceans that cover most of the planet. Then around three billion years ago some bacteria evolved to consume Carbon Dioxide and excrete a highly toxic gas Oxygen. Other bacteria released Nitrogen. The atmospheric concentration of these gases slowly increased. Organisms that could not adapt died out.’

‘Meanwhile the planet’s land masses floating on huge tectonic plates eventually came together in a configuration that interfered with the circulation of Ocean Currents. It began to get cold for the first time. The first ice appeared two billion years ago. And for the last 700 000 years our planet has been in a geological ice age characterized by advancing and retreating glacial ice. No one is entirely sure why but ice now covers the planet every 100 000 years with smaller advances every 20 000 or so. The last advance was 20 000 years ago so we’re due for the next one.’

‘Even today after five billion years our planet remains amazingly active. We have 500 volcanoes and an eruption every two weeks. Earthquakes are continuous, a million and a half a year, a moderate Richter 5 earthquake every six hours, a big earthquake every ten days. Tsunamis race across the Pacific Ocean every three months. Our atmosphere is as violent as the land beneath it. At any moment there are 1500 electrical storms across the planet. Eleven lightning bolts strike the ground each second. A tornado tears across the surface every six hours. And every four days a giant cyclonic storm hundreds of miles in diameter spins over the ocean and wreaks havoc on the land.’

‘To imagine human beings can stabilize the Earth’s atmosphere is arrogant beyond belief. We can’t control the climate. We run from the storms because this is far and away the most sensible thing to do.’

…extracted from a Tavern Talk on Climate with Bill Shepherd