For the next four years Fredrik Reinfeldt will be Prime Minister of Sweden with its population of nine million. Yesterday the alliance of Reinfeldt’s Conservatives with Liberals, Christian Democrats and Centre won 178 seats in the 349-seat Swedish Parliament putting them 7-seats ahead of the Social Democrat Alliance.
The Social Democrats will still be the largest party in the parliament with 35% of the vote followed by Reinfeldt’s party with an impressive 26%...up from 15% in 2002. But victory was won in the Stockholm City Region...which casts one in five of all Swedish votes. In Stockholm 37% voted for the Conservatives and only 25% for the ruling Social Democrats.

With Proportional Representation, Minority Parties form alliances with other Opposition Parties to gain power while a Majority Party splits the opposition to stay in power. Reinfeldt succeeded where Göran Persson failed. If Cameron Tories and the Hughes LibDems formed an alliance against Brown’s New Labour for the 2009 Westminster Elections Cameron could well get a Reinfeldt Outcome under PR...but First Past The Post is something else.
English Political Commentators regularly make extravagant ideological claims for Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party. But the electoral reality was always that when the Gang of Four split off from the Labour Party and formed themselves into a new party any Conservative Party could have strolled to electoral victory. 20-years later the new party was taken over by the Liberal Party and ever since, the Liberal Democrats have campaigned as Not The Tories in Conservative Constituencies and Not New Labour in Labour Constituencies. This works well until you have to govern…which is now Reinfeldt’s problem. But there are others.
Social Democracy has ruled Sweden for 69 of the past 74 years building up a model state on funds accumulated by keeping out of both European wars. With the rest of Europe in ruins Sweden's industries had a huge international market and little competition. In the seventies the money ran out so Sweden started borrowing. Meanwhile it kept the economy going…and exports strong…by steadily depreciating the kronor…down a third over the 20 years.
However Reinfeldt has two things going for him. Firstly Sweden has given an approving nod to a generation change…not something Swedes do lightly…with the new 41-year old Swedish Prime Minister 20-years younger than the old one. Reinfeldt would have had a tougher fight on his hands against an Anna Lindh or a Mona Sahlin.
Secondly Reinfeldt pointed his finger at a glaring problem with the Swedish Model…one that Swedes have been reluctant to admit. Sweden preaches the Protestant Ethic with Work as the foundation of their society and Full Employment as their pride and joy.
But reality has been less and less people working for more and more scroungers as the Social Democrats imposed levies on high incomes...so high in fact that effective tax rates were often over 60% after Employee Contributions. This tax money was redistributed fairly indiscriminately to both the deserving and undeserving poor. Add in the generous Unemployment Benefits and for sizeable parts of the population work is no longer an attractive Lifestyle Option. OECD calculates that the average Swede clocks on for only 35/52 weeks a year.
The Social Democrats have also shown indifference to the plight of small businesses and entrepreneurs preferring to rely on Saltsjöbaden Concordats with the big Multinational Swedish Corporations…Ericsson, SKF, ABB and Volvo...and their labour unions. True unemployment in Sweden is running closer to 20% than the official 6% but this is being masked by political correctness and statistical deceit. The only policy response that the Social Democrats have come up with…supplied by their alliance partners on the left…has been to create 200 000 new Public Sector Jobs. Reinfeldt made this poverty of ideas…and distrust of Private Initiative…a principal theme of his Election Campaign.
Young people entering the Work-Force over the past few years have become increasingly aware that Sweden is not working for them…but for just a few privileged groups favoured by the Social Democrats. What they really want is to contribute meaningfully to the World of Work. But all they are offered is Temporary Jobs and Meaningless Courses. In this regard Sweden is more like France than England…but without the riots.






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